Contents
Invest in gold and protect your wealth ️
Uncertain in the face of volatile stock markets in 2024? Gold is emerging as a historic safe-haven asset, up 41% since January. This article deciphers why investing in physical gold (bullion, Napoleons) and ETFs offers protection against inflation. Discover the strategies tested by investors such as Maison Boulle, and the banks’ forecasts for 2025
Contents
- Why choose gold in 2024?
- Key forms of investment
- ⚠️ Risks and optimisation
- Integrating gold into your portfolio
- Future prospects
Why choose gold in 2024?
A safe haven in uncertain times
Gold returned 24% during the 2008 crisis and 25% in 2020 during the Covid. With inflation at 4.5% in the OECD zone, the yellow metal preserves purchasing power better than currencies. For example, an investor who allocated 20% to physical gold limited his losses to 8%, compared with -32% for pure equities in March 2020.
Over 10 years, the SPDR Gold Shares (ETF) offers an annualised return of 7.4% compared with 12.4% for equities. But gold reduces overall volatility: a 70/30 equities/gold portfolio fluctuates 40% less.
The right time to buy
To analyse the gold market, you need to keep an eye on these 5 key indicators:
- ️ World mine production (3,600 tonnes in 2023)
- Real interest rates (bond yield – inflation)
- US dollar (1% fall = 0.7% on the ounce)
- Geopolitical tensions (wars, elections)
- Central bank purchases (800 tonnes in 2022)
Goldman Sachs forecasts $3,700/ounce by the end of 2025. The DCA strategy (fixed monthly investment) helps to smooth prices: €250/month over 5 years buys 15% more gold than a bulk purchase in January 2023.
| Asset | Yield 2020 | Volatility |
|---|---|---|
| Physical gold | 25% | ⭐️⭐️ |
| S&P 500 | 18% | ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ |
| Government bonds | 5% | ⭐️ |
Key forms of investment
Physical gold in all its forms
The choice between Napoleons (5.8g of pure gold) and bars depends on your objectives. French coins benefit from a 5% premium and are easy to resell with 87% of brokers. Maison Boulle recommends secure storage at 0.3% of annual capital, with a quarterly audit.
A 50g ingot costs €120 in hidden costs over 5 years (transport and insurance). Compared with ETFs, physical gold offers a tax deduction after 22 years of ownership ⏳. Example: an investor in Lyon reduced his taxes by 37% via a mixed coin/lingot strategy.
| Type | Advantage | Annual cost |
|---|---|---|
| Napoleon | Immediate liquidity | 0,5% |
| 1kg ingot | Reduced premium | 1,2% |
| Physical ETF | No storage | 0,4% |
Innovative digital solutions
BullionVault makes it possible to buy gold gram by gram, with audited storage in Zurich. The CEO of Gold.fr reports a 63% increase in hybrid transactions (physical and digital) since 2022. Beware of bogus ETFs: always check AMF approval and physical backing.
Gold tokens on blockchain appeal to 28% of the under-35s. But favour regulated platforms such as Tether Gold, which guarantee 1 token = 1 physical ounce. Like real estate via an offshore company, these tools require a rigorous analysis of hidden costs.
⚠️ Risks and optimisation
Pitfalls to avoid
The bubble of 2011-2013 saw the ounce fall from $1,900 to $1,200 in 18 months. Historical crashes show that gold can lose 35% of its value in 3 years. For example, an investor in Lyon lost €200,000 when he rushed to sell his bullion during the correction in 2013.
| Country | Purchase tax | Capital gains tax |
|---|---|---|
| France | 0% | 36,2% |
| Belgium | 0% | 0% |
| Switzerland | 0% | 0% |
The technique of options on futures contracts makes it possible to hedge 75% of the downside risk ️. Cory’s Tequila Corp has been using this method to secure its precious metals supplies since 2019.
Securing your investments
7 golden rules before buying :
- ✅ Check the official hallmark on each coin
- Demand a numberedcertificate of authenticity
- Choose Banque de France-approved safes
- Limit exposure to 15% of assets
- Diversify assets (physical/ETF/equities)
- Audit reserves annually
- Avoid personal storage in excess of €100,000
The UBS-Brink’s partnership guarantees armoured transport with GPS tracking ️. Ideal solution for large volumes: 1 secure truck transports up to 3 tonnes of gold worth €150 million.
A case in point: the theft of $20m from Toronto airport in 2023 shows the importance of strict protocols. Untraceable bullion accounts for 90% of insured losses.
Integration into your portfolio
The Ray Dalio method recommends 7-10% gold in a diversified portfolio ️. His “All Weather Portfolio” combines 30% equities, 55% bonds and 15% precious metals. Bridgewater Associates has been using this allocation since 1996 with an annualised return of 9.8%.
| Assets | Allocation | Performance 2020-2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Global equities | 55% | 42% |
| Bonds | 35% | 8% |
| Physical gold | 5% | 63% |
| Cash | 5% | 1% |
The Vanguard study reveals a correlation of -0.32 between gold and bonds. This dynamic reduces overall volatility: a portfolio with 5% gold has a maximum drawdown of 18%, compared with 34% without the precious metal.
For optimum geographical diversification, combine European physical gold with international assets. This strategy helped limit losses to 12% during the March 2020 crash.
Future prospects
Macroeconomic trends
Fed policy is having a direct impact on gold reserves: every 1% rise in interest rates reduces demand for gold by 8%. Central banks plan to buy a further 800 tonnes by 2026 to offset persistent inflation.
Industrial demand is expected to jump 40% by 2030. Key sectors :
- Electronics (5G connectors)
- Medical (cancer implants)
- Energy (nanoparticles for solar panels)
Apple now recycles 20% of the gold in its iPhones using specialised robots ♻️. Their “Daisy” project recovers 1kg of pure gold for every 100,000 devices processed, an initiative taken up by Samsung in 2024.
New opportunities
| Platform | Backing | Storage |
|---|---|---|
| Pax Gold | 1 token = 1 ounce | London |
| Tether Gold | 1 token = 1 gram | Switzerland |
| Kinesis | 1 KAU = 1g gold | Singapore |
The first low-carbon ETF (BNP Paribas Easy Low Carbon) emits 75% less CO₂ than traditional funds . Its index excludes 25% of the most polluting mines, with a TER of 0.18%.
Subsea deposits account for 34% of new reserves . Geologist Marc Duval estimates the potential of the Sanshan site at 470 tonnes, but warns of the ecological risks: “Abyssal mining threatens 60% of endemic marine species”.
Irish tech start-ups are developing AI solutions to optimise gold mining, reducing costs by 18% while protecting the environment.
Gold remains a mainstay in the face of economic uncertainty, with flexible options (physical, ETFs, tokens). Adopt a progressive strategy like the DCA and consult the 2025 forecasts before taking action. By including 5% gold in your portfolio now, you are creating a tangible shield to secure tomorrow. ✨
FAQ
What type of gold should I buy to invest in?
To invest in gold, you have two main options:physical gold (coins, bars) or gold funds (ETFs). To be considered an investment, physical gold must be over 995 thousandths pure and weigh more than one gram. It is bought from trusted dealers. It is a tangible asset, a safe haven in times of crisis, but beware of storage and insurance costs. ️
ETFs, on the other hand, replicate the gold price without you having to physically store it. It’s practical, but don’t forget the management fees. The choice depends on your objectives, your budget and your risk tolerance. Physical gold can be used as insurance, while gold funds may be better suited to a short-term search for yield.
What is the 10-year rate of return on gold?
The 10-year return on gold varies depending on the source and the period, but an average can be used. Some sources give an annualised return of between 6.54% and 7.8%. Others give an annualised return of 5.9% since 2010.
It is important to note that these figures are averages and that actual returns may vary. What’s more, gold does not generate income such as dividends, but its value can rise over time. It’s a long-term investment! ⏳
Can the price of gold collapse?
Yes, the price of gold can fall. Although it is often seen as a safe haven, its price is influenced by a variety of factors. Falls in the price of gold have been observed, for example, in December 2023 and November 2024.
These falls may be due to decisions by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), positive economic data or other geopolitical events. It is important to note that the gold price can also rise during periods of uncertainty. So be careful! ⚠️
How much gold should I own?
There is no single answer, because the amount of gold you should own depends on your financial objectives, your risk tolerance, your investment horizon and the other assets you own. It’s case by case!
Some sources suggest gold allocations of between 5% and 19% of your investment portfolio. Don’t forget that investing in gold involves risk, so do thorough research and consult a financial adviser before making any decisions.Investing in gold: Complete guide
